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hunalkuwait

Friday, August 06, 2004

testing mailtoblogger functionality

OIL AT $44 a barrel....
 
well since i'm already sending this - let me comment on the super-significant developments of the last few days re. oil prices. it truly is a double-edged sword. kuwait will definitely benefit along with the cartel in the short-term but if this could have adverse effects on the global economy leading to some long term systemic effects.
 
i'm just stating the obvious and posing the question - what are the consequences and which scenario is ultimately better from kuwait's perspective?
 
and on the topic of the price itself... how do you ever predict it? its almost futile to make accurate predictions given the myriad of factors involved and given our current data-processing ability (we still don't have computers powerful enough to digest all the possible inputs). we may get there someday but we're still far from it....

4 Comments:

  • This instable market is one the reasons why I am in favour for developing and understanding the technologies for alternative sources of energy.

    We depend too much on oil, and the price nowadays is out of the hand of Opec and in the hand of traders.

    Although we make big money on crude oil, this is only a short term vision. Once the GTL plants kick in full gear in Qatar and the hydrogen economy starts to move in Japan and China, we will see a shift in how the world depends on oil as fuel.

    Opec will not be able to change anything, regardless of how much oil they pump in the market. Opec is a relic of old times that needs to be modernised to fit in with emerging competition, which will be there in the next 10-20 years. This will be happening as quick as the introduction of internet, mobiles, etc.

    We do not have a choice, we have to be prepared for this new era, we have to be prepared for the Chinese Dragon and be there from the start, with major investments and co-operation. The European and American economies will not be as strong and will continue to exhibit problems (mainly because people are lazy and not as productive). So main advice here, get out of Europe and the states, go to China.

    We have depended so long on selling the raw material itself (at cheap prices even) and never developed the concept of selling knowledge, like all major companies do. The technologies of the future are all under control of the Shells, BPs, and Exxon Mobils of this world. They posses the knowledge and understand the challenges.

    We in Kuwait have to develop a sound understand of this future technology, and not only depend on external 60 year old bald and fat American/European experts coming to teach us how to tie our shoes for $100,000.

    The next 20 years will see a shift in the balance of power, economies will fallter and economies will raise, the question is, will we be correctly placed to make real and sound benefits for the whole society and not only for 10 people? Will we ever understand how to play the game? Will we ever achieve our full potential as a nation?

    We shall see in the next decade.

    By Blogger Purgatory, at Friday, August 06, 2004 11:30:00 AM  

  • The oil price is great for the Kuwait budget, usually they place the cost of the barrel from $15-$25. So anything higher than that is a great surplus. My friend who works on the oil fields said usually they do a shutdown every 5 years to take everything apart and clean it, and there was going to be one in Sept, but due to the high oil prices they postponed it till next year.

    With this surplus the government needs to invest highly in education, opening schools in Kuwait, offering more scholarships, as well as a museum. Cause no matter how educated in technology and techniques we are nothing without culture and art.

    Like purg said, why spend $100,000 on someone to teach us how to tie our shoes, when we can design our own shoes without laces and also look stylish.

    By Blogger nibaq, at Friday, August 06, 2004 7:43:00 PM  

  • Tell me about it, I work with those people all the time.

    By Blogger Purgatory, at Friday, August 06, 2004 7:58:00 PM  

  • In the long term, reasonable oil prices are our best bet. Although short term profits will soar during 40 buck peaks, the high prices usually encourage research into alternatre energy and fuel a trend towards "energy dependence" in the US. However, at higher prices foreign wells in the US, Russia and wherever else become profitable to operate and begin pumping oil into the market and bringing the market price lower. As for the price of oil, try talking to one of those futures traders, its all speculation. if you guys are interested in this stuff, check out the info@wharton website.

    By Blogger poiwer, at Thursday, August 12, 2004 4:22:00 AM  

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